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Singapore looks set to become the world's
fastest-growing economy in 2010 after the government upgraded its forecast
to a blistering 13 to 15 percent annual expansion.
The
new estimate, up sharply from an earlier prediction of 7.0 to 9.0 percent,
outstrips forecasts of around 10 percent growth in regional powerhouse China
and comes despite lingering worries over the US and European economies.
"Singapore will be the strongest-growing economy in Asia for the year and
probably in the world," said Song Seng Wun, a Singapore-based regional
economist with CIMB Research.
He said the new growth forecast was "realistic" despite a projected slowdown
in the second half because gross domestic product (GDP) expansion in the
first six months of the year was likely to be 18 percent.
Asia's other export-oriented economies are also expected to post healthy
increases this year, but Singapore has other growth drivers including its
tourism and financial services industry.
Singapore opened two huge casino resorts this year that have proved a
popular draw.
David Cohen, a regional economist with research house Action Economics, said
Singapore will "probably come on top of the charts worldwide".
Cohen, however, said this should be seen in the context of Singapore's GDP
contraction of 1.3 percent last year due to the global economic crisis,
while China's GDP grew at around 9.0 percent in 2009.
Strong second-quarter GDP figures "reinforce the view that fears from the
Eurozone crisis may be exaggerated," DBS Bank said in a note.
As Singapore is the "most sensitive to headwinds in the global economy, this
is good news for investors looking to put on risk again," DBS added.
"Hence, sentiment should remain constructive, not only for the Singapore
dollar, but also other Asia ex-Japan currencies and commodity currencies
linked to a positive growth outlook."
Robust demand for Singapore's manufactured exports, particularly biomedical
products and semiconductors, resulted in the sharp upgrade for the
trade-driven island's GDP growth forecast.
Growth in the first quarter was 16.9 percent from a year ago, the Ministry
of Trade and Industry said, while second quarter expansion is estimated at
19.3 percent.
In a separate statement the trade promotion body International Enterprise
(IE) Singapore said non-oil domestic exports a barometer of the health of
the economy jumped 29 percent in June from a year ago, faster than the 24
percent figure the month before.
Electronics exports, including computer chips, climbed 44 percent in June,
after rising 39 percent in May.
Non-electronics shipments, among them pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals and
specialised machinery, were up 21 percent in June, compared with the 16
percent rise the month before, IE Singapore said.
The country's exports are now expected to advance by between 17 and 19
percent this year, up from the previous forecast of 15 to 17 percent.
It cited strong trade with Asian economies led by China as a key factor for
the upgrade of the export forecasts.
The trade body noted China's surging imports, with Beijing's trading
partners expected to benefit from rising demand from Chinese consumers.
The trade ministry said growth would moderate in the second half of the year
due to problems in two key markets for Singapore's exports the United States
and the European Union.
"In the US, there are now signs of a slowdown in the labour market following
the recovery earlier in the year. This has affected consumer confidence. In
the EU, domestic demand remains depressed as concerns over the sovereign
debt crisis persist."
Cohen said however that he does not see the global economy slipping into
another recession. "So the Singapore government's projection for full-year
growth seems within reach," he said. |